Global change is causing climatic shifts, and increasing human activities (e.g., deforestation, economic development/land use, globalization) are driving increased contact with wild animals. These forces are causing considerable changes in patterns of infectious disease distribution and transmission, and opportunities for emerging diseases. The vast majority of infectious diseases circulating in humans and animals are primarily zoonoses that once emerged from other animal hosts. While new infectious diseases periodically emerge that in extreme cases can cause pandemics (such as SARS-CoV-2), established diseases may also re-emerge, for example through geographical expansion or by becoming more pathogenic or transmissible.
Forecasting the evolutionary paths that infectious pathogens can take is vital if we are to get ahead in this arms race. Pathogen evolution is ongoing. New variants constantly arise. It can be rapid – as shown by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic – with major implications for the ability of the pathogen to spread, cause harm, be treated, and adapt to new host species and environments.
Understanding and tracking pathogen evolution is therefore integral to tackling present and future pandemics. Evidence of the great evolutionary potential of some pathogens lies in the rapid emergence and dissemination of new SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and the widespread rise of antibiotic resistance. The ability to evolve to evade acquired immunity necessitates vaccines and boosters for widely spread pathogens. The capacity to evolve also enables pathogens to expand to new animal species. How these evolutionary outcomes affect the severity of infection and the emergence and re-emergence of pathogens from new reservoirs is thus of great interest.
The PrePARE cluster aims to study the emergence and evolution of pathogens in our changing world. Through interdisciplinary research spanning ecology, zoology, microbiology, virology, antimicrobial resistance, and immunology, we aim to innovate new ways to reduce the devastation of infections and ultimately preserve global health.